How to recognize the coming bank crash

Growth investor no need to engage in detailed banking analysis. “You should not take only to those that are chronically featured in negative news, for example, about failures in offices, power outages. Since the probability of license withdrawal from such a bank is higher,” the expert warns. In this scenario, the investor will lose interest on deposits over the past two weeks before paying insurance compensation, and will receive foreign currency deposits in rubles, often at an unprofitable rate on the date the license was withdrawn, the analyst said.
Also, customers should be alerted by the rates on deposits, significantly exceeding the level recommended by the Central Bank, which is set every decade on the basis of the data of 10 banks that attract the largest amount of household deposits.

at risk are banks with a dispersed ownership structure, a historically weak operational efficiency and an incomprehensible model, the dominance of long-term loans in assets or an excessive concentration of the loan portfolio, and a high dependence on household deposits at rates higher than market averages.
a small business in the deposit policy should build a full-fledged risk management, not limited only to the credit ratings of the bank or the size of the assets. “Too small banks often offer favorable conditions, but they themselves lose their licenses, and small business funds only from the beginning of 2019 fall under insurance, but in very small amounts,”. Systematically significant banks are a priori more reliable, but more expensive to maintain, often their financial monitoring is too meticulous.
In banking analysis, small businesses should pay attention not only to financial performance, but also to the bank’s risk profile, its market position, development strategy and significance of the bank for its owners.


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